The Economic Survey, presented in January, 2021 that reads like a political defence of the Modi Government, has little hope to offer the tonnes of workers and marginal farmers reeling under the influence of the pandemic.
The life-threatening experiences of crores of migrant workers, hundreds of whom did lose their lives, stranded without any help because of the arbitrary manner of the imposition of the lockdown within barely a day of its announcement, is airbrushed out of the Survey. This illustrates why the credibility gap between what the government claims and what the reality is will not be reduced by the survey.
The hype of the projected V-shaped recovery. A -7.7% contraction in FY 2021, followed by an estimated 11% growth over this in FY 2022, "the highest since independence." Assuming the estimates turn out to be correct, it actually delivers an overall growth of just 2.45% in these two years taken together.
Moreover, "Growth" is seen as the remedy for all the ills of the economy without any regard for a scrutiny of the path of that growth. It states: "Economic growth has a far greater impact on poverty alleviation than inequality... redistribution is only feasible in a developing country if the size of the economic pie grows." It is precisely this self-serving argument that the largest mass mobilisations of workers and farmers have described as "pro-corporate."
Inequalities in India are ridiculous. According to Oxfam's recently-released report, "In January, the richest 1% hold more than four-times the wealth held by 953 million people who make up for the bottom 70% of the country's population, while the total wealth of all Indian billionaires is more than the full-year budget."
There is nothing "natural" about this huge accretion of wealth by the few, including through a set of policies like the generosity in waiving off corporate loans, giving huge subsidies to corporates, and bringing down the effective tax rates through a slew of exemptions, especially for some sectors such as petroleum products and power sectors in which the effective tax rate is calculated to be just 20-21%.
To propagate that popping inequalities will not help poverty alleviation is a justification for not taxing the super-rich, who, even in this period of pandemic, have shown in several sectors an increase in profits. Instead, the Survey makes it clear enough that the government is going to continue policies which, in the name of "growing the economic pie", actually promote corporate interests on the basis of the failed and discredited "trickle down" theories that if the rich get richer through government policy largesse, some of it will trickle down to the poor.
This has not happened in India. The high unemployment rates show the false influence of the demographic dividend once again repeated in the Survey. As is known, though not admitted in the Survey, India was already in recession when the pandemic struck.